Everything today routes through US Inflation Rate YoY at 18:00 IST — consensus 4.2% against a prior 3.8% — a reading that will either validate or snap the Fed's cautious pivot narrative. That alone makes the afternoon session directionally open. Meanwhile, Iran firing ballistic missiles at an Israeli airbase has already pushed Brent above $96, adding an energy-cost overhang that weighs on import-heavy sectors before the first bell rings.

The domestic floor is DII buying at 4,360 Cr that nearly offset FII outflows of 4,447 Cr Friday, holding net cash flow to a slim -87 Cr. Bank Nifty's 5-day swing low at 53,027 and Nifty's equivalent at 23,152 mark the levels below which the DII-supported floor thesis breaks down. VIX at 15.75 — moderate and marginally softer by 0.88% — says the market is not pricing a panic, yet.

Sector rotation already underway: Media's 3.48% lead on Friday against Metals' 1.6% loss points capital away from commodity-linked plays toward domestically driven earners. Pharma, backed by TORNTPHARM and JBCHEPHARM outperformance, and PSU Banks led by CANBK, represent where defensive rotation is quietly accruing. IT's 0.99% Friday drag — amplified by WIPRO's 2.91% fall — stays exposed until the CPI read clarifies the Fed trajectory.