Everything today routes through US CPI at 18:00 IST — consensus a 4.2% YoY print against a prior 3.8%, with MoM expected to ease to 0.5% from 0.6%. A surprise above consensus would demolish Fed rate-cut expectations for the rest of 2026 and send the Dollar Index, already at 100.0, back on the offensive. Domestically, Nifty at 23,242 sits inside a tight OI wall band of 23,100–23,350, so the index is coiled regardless of direction.

The floor has unexpected depth: DII buying at 5,165 Cr nearly offset FII outflows of 5,556 Cr, holding net damage to just 390 Cr. PCR at 1.06 and max-pain at 23,300 suggest the options market is not pricing panic — but that equilibrium dissolves quickly if Brent breaks above $95 on sustained Hormuz disruption risk. Crude at $92.26 is already off a seven-week low after confirmed US strikes near Qeshm Island.

The rotation story from Tuesday — PSU banks leading at +3.62%, Defence at +1.71%, IT dragging at -0.48% — is a logical response to a falling rate-cut probability environment favouring domestic cyclicals over export-linked tech. If CPI confirms elevated inflation, that domestic-cyclical tilt deepens, while any miss on inflation breathes life back into IT and rate-sensitive Realty, which added 1.63% on Tuesday.