Crude craters, Gift Nifty gaps up
as payrolls at 18:00 decide the next move.

Brent sliding to $70.75 — a drop of 3.4% in a single session — is the most consequential overnight development for Indian markets. Lower crude compresses the current-account deficit, supports the rupee, and directly relieves margin pressure in oil-linked industrials and auto ancillaries. Everything today, however, routes through the US Non-Farm Payrolls print at 18:00 IST — consensus at 110K versus a prior 172K — which will set the Fed-rate narrative for July.

Domestically, DII inflows of 3,159 Cr absorbed FII selling of 1,140 Cr on Wednesday, producing a net positive 2,019 Cr — a floor that has held the index above the central pivot at 23,984. India VIX at 13.24, down 2.62%, confirms that options markets are not pricing a volatility event from the opening gap. The 5-day swing low at 23,789 remains the structural invalidation point for any near-term constructive read.

The rotation already underway is the real signal: Realty and FMCG absorbing money that fled IT and Metals. If NFP prints soft, rate-cut expectations re-price and domestic cyclicals — particularly financials and rate-sensitives — become the logical beneficiary of the afternoon move. A hot print flips that equation fast, and the gap-up open becomes the session's high-water mark.