Everything today routes through two Fed voices and the US GDP Price Index at 18:00 IST (previous 3.6%, consensus 3.5%). A softer GDP deflator would cement the case that US inflation is decelerating, lifting rate-cut expectations and putting downward pressure on the Dollar Index from its current 101.5 perch. That backdrop, combined with Brent slipping toward pre-war levels near $72.49, defines the macro air that India is breathing this morning.

The domestic floor is held by DII buying — net 3,637 Cr in the prior session against FII selling of 1,843 Cr — a pattern that has consistently absorbed foreign outflows in recent weeks. With VIX compressing to 13.39 and max-pain anchored at 24,000, the options market is not pricing a breakdown; it is pricing a grind toward, and possibly through, the 24,189 swing high. The central pivot at 23,967 is the line that separates consolidation from a retest of lower ground.

The rotation already visible in the tape — Realty and IT leading while Defence and Energy retreat — reflects a classic Iran-risk unwind: geopolitical premium exits cyclicals, and domestic rate-sensitive plays absorb the freed capital. Realty's 2.17% gain alongside IT's 2.05% advance signals the market is repricing lower-for-longer borrowing costs, not just cheaper jet fuel.