The dominant force entering Wednesday is crude's capitulation. Brent's drop to $79 — a three-month low driven by an imminent Iran-US supply deal — rewires the inflation narrative faster than any central bank statement can. For India, cheaper crude compresses the current-account deficit, relieves fuel-subsidy pressure, and gives the RBI room it did not have even a fortnight ago. Everything today, though, routes through the FOMC Economic Projections at 23:30 IST, with the current-year dot previously anchored at 3.4%.

The floor has domestic scaffolding. DII cash inflows of 3,189 Cr on Tuesday — against FII's modest 200 Cr — signal that domestic institutions are not waiting for the Fed to deploy. India VIX at 13.39, its calmest read in weeks, means options markets are not pricing a shock; that removes one layer of mechanical selling pressure. Bank Nifty lagging at +0.17% versus Nifty's +0.57% is the counterweight — credit names need the dot-plot to cooperate before the 57,804 swing high becomes a credible target.

The rotation already visible — Realty leading at +2.26%, IT at +1.78%, Metals dragging at -1.55% — maps a rate-sensitive, domestically oriented playbook. Rate-sensitive sectors absorb the crude disinflation and a potential dovish dot revision; commodity-linked names face the opposite arithmetic. That divergence likely widens rather than closes until the 23:30 IST print resets the calculus.